Augur House Elections Market: Alleged Reporter Says Republicans Won The Market

capitol hill pixabay

A person claiming to be the designated reporter for an Augur predictions market which asked the question “Which party will control the House after 2018 U.S. Midterm Election?” has posted to Reddit saying that he will be reporting that the Republicans control the house today. The market ends today, 12/10, and the Decmocrats, who won the election, won’t take control of the house until January.

A Twitter user said that this is an arguable case:

At issue, of course, are several things as regards predictions markets. The question is ambiguous – it doesn’t clarify who will win the election, but who will control the House after the election. However, one could argue that if we’re going to play semantics, then both parties are correct – Republicans control it now, and Democrats will control it in January, and both periods of time follow the mid-term elections.

In fact, if the outcome is reported as it allegedly will be, then it belies a previous article on CCN where we said it correctly predicted the outcome. In fact, 90% of people probably did believe they were forecasting the election outcome, but according to the alleged market reporter, they were actually just predicting incorrectly who would be controlling the House on December 10th.

At time of writing, the market report had not been finalized. The alleged reporter, who goes by the handle Poyo-Poyo on Reddit, wrote:

Regarding 0xbbbc0a8baa03535e0a680ee2f057162aaaafd570,

I am sorry for any confusion or financial loss my gimmick house market may have caused. The intention is, and always has been, to measure the status of the House of Congress on the 10th of December, NOT the status after the new congress takes office.

Thusly, I shall, and am required to, report as “Republican” when I submit my official selection for this market later today.

Again, I am truly sorry for any damage to traders, or to the Augur Community as a whole for this ambiguity, and I hope the Augur World continues to thrive along toward the future, and I plan to continue to play my important role in its development over the coming years.

The Augur market allows reporters three days to report, and the market officially ended just under 24 hours ago. CCN will post an update at that time, regardless of the outcome. If the results go the way the alleged reporter says they will, then we 90% of those who bet on the market will have lost their money, totaling around over 3/4s of a million dollars in cryptos.

Get Exclusive Crypto Analysis by Professional Traders and Investors on Sign up now and get the first month for free. Click here.



Democratic Party Evolving



From the Washington Post:

“More than 90 American Muslims, nearly all of them Democrats, are running for public office across the country this year. Many are young and politically inexperienced, and most are long shots. But they represent a collective gamble: that voters are so disgusted by America’s least popular president on record that they’re willing to elect members of America’s least popular religious minority group.

Although their number seems small, the candidacies mark an unprecedented rise for the nation’s diverse Muslim community that typically has been underrepresented in American politics.

There are more than 3.3 million Muslims living in the United States, but Muslim Americans hold just two of the 535 seats in Congress. And the Muslim community’s voter participation pales in comparison to the general public’s.

The rise of Muslim candidates coincides with the growth of the predominantly immigrant population and a partisan shift that has played out over a generation. In a 2001 Zogby poll of American Muslims, 42 percent said they voted for Republican George W. Bush in the previous year’s presidential election, while 31 percent said they voted for Democrat Al Gore. By last year, just 8 percent of voting American Muslims in a Pew poll said they voted for Trump, while 78 percent said they voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Fayaz Nawabi, a Muslim candidate running for San Diego City Council, gathers his belongings before going to a debate at the Mira Mesa Public Library in San Diego on March 3. (Sandy Huffaker/For The Washington Post)

While Clinton’s campaign never garnered broad enthusiasm from Muslim communities, Trump’s campaign — which called for the monitoring of mosques and a ban on Muslims entering the United States — delivered a jolt on election night that some American Muslims likened to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.”

This upcoming election in November is proving to be a possible game changer.  The pro Muslim sentiment has been growing globally.  In Europe, the change is not what I would consider a good thing.  Their sharia law is anathema to the current law.

I admit that I am not an expert on sharia law and I am just starting to do some research on it so I can be more aware of its tenets.  I came across this site that claims to summarize the major points.  The site is –

I cannot claim that this site is unbiased so do further research (as I will also do) before you come to a conclusion.  The main points listed are:

Theft is punishable by amputation of the hands (Quran 5:38).

• Criticizing or denying any part of the Quran is punishable by death.

• Criticizing Muhammad or denying that he is a prophet is punishable by death.

• Criticizing or denying Allah is punishable by death (see Allah moon god).

• A Muslim who becomes a non-Muslim is punishable by death (See Compulsion).

• A non-Muslim who leads a Muslim away from Islam is punishable by death.

• A non-Muslim man who marries a Muslim woman is punishable by death.

• A woman or girl who has been raped cannot testify in court against her rapist(s).

• Testimonies of 4 male witnesses are required to prove rape of a female (Quran 24:13).

• A woman or girl who alleges rape without producing 4 male witnesses is guilty of adultery.

• A woman or girl found guilty of adultery is punishable by death (see “Islamophobia”).

• A male convicted of rape can have his conviction dismissed by marrying his victim.

• Muslim men have sexual rights to any woman/girl not wearing the Hijab (see Taharrush).

• A woman can have 1 husband, who can have up to 4 wives; Muhammad can have more.

• A man can marry an infant girl and consummate the marriage when she is 9 years old.

• Girls’ clitoris should be cut (Muhammad’s words, Book 41, Kitab Al-Adab, Hadith 5251).

• A man can beat his wife for insubordination (see Quran 4:34 and Religion of Peace).

• A man can unilaterally divorce his wife; a wife needs her husband’s consent to divorce.

• A divorced wife loses custody of all children over 6 years of age or when they exceed it.

• A woman’s testimony in court, allowed in property cases, carries ½ the weight of a man’s.

• A female heir inherits half of what a male heir inherits (see Mathematics in Quran).

• A woman cannot speak alone to a man who is not her husband or relative.

• Meat to eat must come from animals that have been sacrificed to Allah – i.e., be “Halal.”

• Muslims should engage in Taqiyya and lie to non-Muslims to advance Islam.

Based on the assumption that this list is at least partially correct, if the US adopts sharia law it will radically change the society.


Another Political Plant



The rising star among the democratic party, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez whom won a primary election of entrenched Joe Crowley.  She touts herself as a ‘girl from the Bronx’ and is laying out the image that she is one of the working class.  This image has launched her successful win as the voters are seeking a change in the power structure.

She claimed that “I wasn’t born to a wealthy or powerful family.  I was born in a place where your zip code determines your destiny”.

Breitbart’s Josh Caplan just penned a fact check article which tells a different story.  It maybe true that she was born in a place where the zip code determines ones destiny but she moved at 5 years old to one of the richest area in New York.  She was born in Parkchester, NY and moved to Yorktown Heights, a wealthy suburb in Westchester County.  Westchester ranks #8 in the nation for the counties with the highest average incomes.

We are well aware of the aphorism about knowing when a politician is lying, especially when they are campaigning.  How many campaign promises are kept?  This maybe the reason that the public’s faith / approval rating in politicians overall is dismally low.

It is clear that the democrats need some new blood to replace the aging frontrunners.  It is not a crime to grow up in a wealthy neighborhood but a campaigner should be up front and not spin the issue to sway voters.  She comment on the Late Show “Well, you know, the president is from Queens, and with all due respect – half of my district is from Queens.  I don’t think he knows how to deal with a girl from the Bronx”.

It appears that she is trying to create a division between her and the president that she is one of the poor, financial struggling commoners and the president is one of the ‘1%ers’.  If New Yorkers are getting spin when it comes to her upbringing, how can they believe they will get honest answers on other more poignant issues.  It may behoove NY voters to do some research prior to selecting their candidates.

Stish Social Portal