How to Last the Crypto Winter? Seek Simplicity, Manage Complexity

Jake Yocom-Piatt is the Project Lead for Decred, a hyper-secure, adaptable and self-funding digital currency.

The following is an exclusive contribution to CoinDesk’s 2018 Year in Review.

2018 year in review

In 2018, we have seen the cryptocurrency market cap go from all-time highs in January to falling over 80 percent by December, despite little changing in the context of the technological fundamentals.

If little has changed with the fundamentals, then there must be other factors driving the manic buying and panic selling cycles present in these markets? A persistent pattern I have observed in the context of investors and projects in the space is one of information asymmetry.

This information asymmetry manifests itself in various contexts, e.g. either being a very informed or a very uninformed investor, the ability to determine if a project has overpromised on its technological deliverables or not. Another way of viewing this asymmetry is that it arises from hidden complexity, whether we’re talking about perceiving the value in an asset or implementing a new piece of software.

While I can describe bitcoin in a single phrase as “gamification of time-stamping,” describing and delivering a working system that implements that concept is a serious technical challenge.

With Decred, we experienced this hidden complexity firsthand while building Politeia, a time-ordered filesystem, for use as our proposal system. Making cryptocurrency markets less volatile and projects more substantive is a matter of doing what we can to eliminate the information asymmetry that arises from technological complexity, both with investors and software alike.

Complexity for Investors

I have observed a very bimodal distribution when it comes to the extent to which cryptocurrency investors are informed. There is a minority that is incredibly well informed and a majority who are quite uninformed.

This knowledge gap often benefits the well-informed at the direct expense of the uninformed, so the former are incentivized to maintain this arrangement. Similar to many other markets, the less-informed chase the carrot of easy profits dangled in front of them by the better-informed. When this herd-like behavior is combined with relatively thinly traded markets, it creates serious volatility, which has much in common with over-the-counter (“OTC”) stocks.

The perception of value drives investor decision-making, so the collective psychological state of investors determines the value of an asset. Unlike many other assets, cryptocurrency fundamentals do not change substantially as a function of time. This constancy of fundamentals is a major driver for using cryptocurrencies as a store-of-value (“SoV”) over longer timescales.

It is this SoV property that separates cryptocurrencies from OTC stocks, and it drives a longer timescale periodicity that is not present in most OTC stocks. Many uninformed investors are keen to buy low and sell high, capturing a profit in fiat terms, whereas well-informed investors understand the SoV property is a longer term play, which incentivizes them to buy low and avoid liquidating their positions.

Informed investors using cryptocurrencies as a SoV fuel these longer term boom-bust cycles, so episodic spikes in valuation occur without the value crashing to zero after each manic buying phase.

Complexity for Projects

After managing several software projects over the past decade, I can say that, even as someone who participates on a technical level, it is easy to overpromise on deliverables.

The main driver of this disconnect between promises and quality working code is the hidden complexity of the cryptocurrency development process. Over the past few years, I have seen many projects make massive promises and raise staggering amounts of capital in ICOs and similar processes, only to not deliver, deliver incredibly late or deliver barely-working software.

Similar to the situation for investors, projects have a bimodal distribution of technical ability: a minority that keeps their promises roughly in line with what they can realistically deliver and a majority that grossly overpromises on a regular basis. Overpromising on software deliverables is often the result of a combination of underestimating the complexity of cryptocurrency software and conscious overstatement on part of project leads.

Because the domain of cryptocurrency software is still rather new and complex, there are correspondingly few people who are well-suited to understand what can and cannot be achieved in a particular amount of time, on a technical basis. So, a project may make some really impressive claims about what it will achieve, but when there are so few people who are capable of realistically assessing how feasible the claims are, it incentivizes malicious actors to bait-and-switch investors.

Numerous projects that have been funded on a bait-and-switch basis have seen their valuations collapse throughout 2017 and 2018 once investors become aware they are unlikely to deliver on their claims.

Complexity in Practice

As the Project Lead for Decred, I am familiar with the process of dealing with complexity from a technical and management standpoint, and our off-chain time-ordered filesystem, Politeia, serves as a good example for how hidden complexity can delay even seasoned development teams in the space.

Our goal was to have Politeia in production as our proposal system in roughly 12 months from the start of the project in April 2017, and we didn’t go into production until six months after the projected date in October 2018. Despite building on top of a working versioned filesystem, git and attempting to avoid complexity, it still took several additional months to get the metadata formats just right and have the frontend perform suitably.

Politeia is based on a pretty simple idea “create an off-chain store of data where you can demonstrate who said what when using cryptography and an existing blockchain.”

Once you split this apart into its components, it doesn’t seem very difficult:

  • Make episodic self-contained timestamps using the Decred blockchain
  • User identities correspond to keypairs in a PKI system
  • User messages are all signed by the corresponding identity private key
  • Up and down votes are a special form of user message
  • Tracking user ticket votes based on snapshots of the Decred ticket pool

This list is pretty short and each component is relatively simple, but handling the edge and corner cases that arise between these components quickly becomes non-trivial. Despite the final working implementation being complex, it can be described as a handful of simple components that even less-informed market participants can understand.

Simplicity for Investors

There are myriad ways to become a well-informed cryptocurrency investor, but after making my own missteps, I have a few simple policies that can help cut through some of the complexity:

  • Stay skeptical – When someone makes extraordinary claims, they need to supply extraordinary evidence. If any claim made by a project sounds too good to be true, see what someone external to that project has to say about it, and attempt to understand more about how they will deliver on their claim.
  • Do your own research – There is no substitute for doing some self-directed research about a project before investing in it. Even in my case, as someone who has been working in the space for almost six years, it still takes me several hours to do a good job footprinting another project and understanding their value proposition in some detail. Are there other projects that serve a similar niche? What makes this project better than others in the same niche?
  • Dollar-cost averaging – Not everyone has the ability to dictate the schedule on which they acquire cryptocurrency, but I recommend considering a dollar-cost averaging approach, where you make regular purchases over a longer time period. It is challenging to buy at a local minimum price, so rather than load up at single price, you purchase regularly over a wide range of prices. This way, you are not beholden to the psychology of having bought everything at a single price, and you can lower your average acquisition cost by buying as prices drop.
  • Psychological periodicity – As discussed above, there is a periodicity present in cryptocurrency markets that is not present in other similar markets. Before investing, consider that you may have to wait several years for the market to cycle to a point where you have made a good investment. 2018 has had a lot of similarity to 2014 in that all-time highs occurred near the start of the year and markets have sold off in stages throughout the year. For much of 2015, BTC/USD was in the 200s and this was an excellent time to acquire Bitcoin. I suspect 2019 will be similar to 2015, where valuations stay depressed and the market consolidates throughout the year.

Simplicity for Projects

Overcoming the complexity barrier between promises and implementation for cryptocurrency projects is challenging. Here are some policies that have served me well:

  • Avoid overpromising – It is easy to be coerced or otherwise convinced that you need to make huge promises to generate interest in your project, financial or otherwise. If you care about not looking like a doofus later on, make a point to reflect on whether or not your promises can be delivered on before making them publicly. In my case, this has meant not publishing projected completion dates for work because I am often wrong about when it ends up being done, e.g. Politeia. Managing expectations matters.
  • Avoid complexity – Once you have some established promises or have otherwise chosen a path forward to address a technical problem, do what you can to avoid complexity and still achieve your goal. Cryptocurrency software is often, as a function of the domain, quite complex, so it especially important to keep things as simple as possible. Less complexity means you are more likely to deliver your software sooner.

Conclusion

By working together to increase our collective comprehension, participants in the cryptocurrency ecosystem can take many steps to help reduce market volatility, create more substantive technology, and efficiently educate newcomers.

If 2019 is anything like 2015, the cryptocurrency market is in a consolidation phase, and the next several months will continue to shake out underperforming projects. Very little has changed with the fundamentals of the space, despite the pullback in valuations, so I expect a continued and bright future for cryptocurrencies in 2019 and beyond.

Have an opinionated take on 2018? CoinDesk is seeking submissions for our 2018 in Review. Email news [at] coindesk.com to learn how to get involved.

Cracks in the ice via Shutterstock

How to Last the Crypto Winter? Seek Simplicity, Manage Complexity

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Huawei P20 Pro – Camera Test

Huawei P20 Pro 

 

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Source


Good morning and a Merry Christmas Eve to all that celebrate!

My trusty Huawei P20 died last week and I was pleasantly surprised to find that I could upgrade early to the amazing Huawei P20 Pro with, wait for it, a 40mp tripple camera with Leica Lenses.


Spec-

The Huawei P20 Pro mobile features a 6.1″ (15.49 cm) display with a screen resolution of 1080 x 2240 pixels and runs on Android v8.1 (Oreo) operating system. The device is powered by Octa core (2.36 GHz, Quad core, Cortex A73 + 1.8 GHz, Quad core, Cortex A53) processor paired with 6 GB of RAM.


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Here’s a few shots I just captured this morning in the garden after excitingly unwrapping my early Christmas present, to myself!


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Merry Christmas everyone!

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Asus zenfone max pro m2 vs realme 2 pro

With new launch of asus zenfone max pro m2 in India within a budget range and with tough competitive specs the new asus phone will sure make a good selling in Indian market.Asus is packed with some great features like gorilla glass 6, 5000 mah battery,etc

The realme 2 pro from realme has some of the same specs which confuses the buyer to choose one, so in this blog i will show you the specs of both phones.

Specification of Realme 2 pro 

Size
Width: 74.0mm
Height: 156.7mm
Depth: 8.5mm
Weight: About 174g (with battery)
Performance
CPU:Qualcomm Snapdragon 660 AIE Processor
CPU cores:Octa-core
CPU frequency:1.95GHz
GPU:Adreno GPU 512
Storage:4GB + 64GB / 6GB + 64GB / 8GB + 128GB
External Memory:Up to 256 GB
Display
Size: 16cm (6.3”)
Screen Type:IPS (In-Cell) LCD
Screen Resolution:2340*1080, FHD+, 408 PPI
Touch Panel/ Type:2.5D, Gorilla® Glass 3
Camera
Rear Camera
Camera Pixel:16 MP + 2 MP
Camera Aperture:f/1.7 + f/2.4
Flash/Soft Light:Back LED Flash
Front Camera
Camera Pixel:16 MP
Camera Aperture:f/2.0
Battery
Battery Capacity:3500mAh (typical)
Charger:5V 2A
Connectivity
Card:Dual nano-SIM and microSD card
Wifi:802.11a/b/g/n/ac, 2.4GHz, 5GHz
Bluetooth:Bluetooth 5.0
GPS:GPS/aGPS/GLONASS/BeiDou
USB Type:Micro-USB
Audio Jack:3.5mm
Sensors
M-sensor
Gravity Sensor
Gyro-meter
Fingerprint Sensor
Light and Proximity Sensor
OTG
System
ColorOS 5.2, based on Android 8.1
 
Specification of Asus Zenfone max pro m2
 

Internal storage

eMCP 32GB / 64GB

MicroSD card

Supports up to 2TB

Weight and Dimensions
157.9mm
(6.22 inches)
75.5mm
(2.97 inches)
8.5mm
(0.33 inches)

Weight: 175 grams

Display

 15.9cm(6.26) FHD+ (2280×1080) IPS Notch display

Corning® Gorilla® Glass 6 for best screen protection

19:9 Full view display

94% NTSC color gamut

450nits brightness

1500:1 contrast ratio

Capacitive touch panel with 10 points multi-touch (supports glove touch)

Processor

CPU:Qualcomm® Snapdragon™ 660 Mobile Platform with AI Engine

GPU:Qualcomm® Adreno™ 512

Memory

 LPDDR4X 3GB / 4GB / 6GB

Main Rear Camera

 12MP Sony® IMX486 image sensor

F1.8 aperture

1.25μm pixel size

6P lens

0.03 seconds phase-detection autofocus

EIS

4K Video recording

LED flash

 
Second Rear Camera

 5MP

Depth sensing

Front Camera

 13MP

F2.0 aperture

1.12μm pixel size

Softlight LED Flash

Audio

 5-magnet speaker for louder, deeper and less distorted sound effect

NXP SmartAmp

Dual internal microphones with ASUS Noise Reduction Technology

FM radio

 
 
Wireless Technology

WLAN 802.11 b/g/n 2.4GHz; support Wi-Fi direct

Bluetooth 5.0

Wi-Fi Display

Navigation

GPS, GLONASS, BDS, GALILEO, QZSS

SIM Cards

 Triple slots: Dual SIM & Dedicated microSD card

Slot 1: 2G/3G/4G Nano SIM card

Slot 2: 2G/3G/4G Nano SIM card

Both SIM card slots support 4G LTE & VoLTE network band.

Slot 3: supports up to 2TB microSD card

Network Standard

 FDD-LTE, TD-LTE, TD-SCDMA, WCDMA/HSPA+/DC-HSDPA, GSM/GPRS/EDGE

Data rate
DC-HSPA+: UL 5.76 / DL 42Mbps

FDD-LTE (Bands 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 20)

TD-LTE (Band 40)

WCDMA (Bands 1, 5, 8)

GSM (Bands 2, 3, 5, 8)

Sensor
Rear fingerprint sensor, Accelerator, E-Compass, Proximity sensor, Ambient light sensor, Gyroscope
External Buttons and Connectors

 Fingerprint sensorOn/Off 

Sleep/WakeVolume up/down3.5mm audio jack 
(1 Headphone/Mic-in)
Built-in speakerUSB connector
 
Battery
5000mAh
Up to 46 days 4G standby

Up to 40 hours 3G talk time

Up to 26 hours Wi-Fi web browsing

Up to 22 hours online video playback

Power Adapter

Output: 5V 2A 10W

Operating System

 Stock Android™ Oreo™

 
Cost of realme 2 pro 4gb, 64 gb varient is Rs.13990
while cost of asus max pro m2 is Rs. 14999
 
Company site for realme 2 pro – https://www.realme.com/in/realme2-pro
 

Elon Musk chooses Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has announced the first passenger for the first private SpaceX flight around the Moon to be – beyond a surprise – an insanely rich Japanese fashion designer and founder of Japan’s online fashion mall, Zozotown.


Image source

Now, everyone knew this is going to be some rich guy taking the first seat with an upfront payment because Musk couldn’t possibly acquire that much money to build a cutting edge carbon based spacecraft that is said to cost more than the Holly Grail…

Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa will spend 4-5 days on a mission around the Moon and expressed the desire to take with himself a crew solely made of various artists. The mission is scheduled for 2023- 2024 approx. when the SpaceX builds a rocket and makes all the necessary preparations.

In other words the rocket is not going to be ready for a while but Yusaku Maezawa already made a lucrative down payment which is by no surprise a secret to public. Personally I thought, why secret? I mean everyone knows spacecrafts don’t fall from the sky as they are insanely expensive.

I think this is a good choice. A billionaire will help him build a rocket with his investment. Personally I think that guy is very brave ( or a bit nuts and dumb, lol – you have to be) because the complexity of a project gives me a feeling that anything can go wrong and the worst case scenario is not so far from the reality.

If doomed, a loss of a rich person who lived his life to the fullest ( unless you are him) and a few artists ( unless you are them) is not fundamentally important for the advancement, security or evolution of the rest of us. I am just stating the obvious, plus Musk already explained numerous times that the thing get blown, rocket explode and the first ( space) mission (s) ( to Mars) could result in catastrophe.

One of the reasons why this is a so hard to do, is a size of a rocket that is said to be ( partially ??) made of the carbon fibers. The problem is that it is a tacky job, and stuff could easily go wrong. That material is much lighter, and a spacecraft size in that way is not a problem. But, a material is suspect-able to various errors which could be dooming in the space or even during the takeoffs… so an every part of this thing has to be cured perfectly. In short – one very tedious thing to make.

Leave me your opinion below. A live show video is in the cover.

More to read on the similar topic:

Elon Musk shut his trap and it rains cheese again

Love, joy and perpetual happiness to all good people.

Thank you for visiting my blog


WORDPRESS TUTORIAL – How To Add Picture URL LInks.

Hello and welcome!
I’ve been asked by a few of my @mancave Bros’ for some help with URL/HTML picture coding.
Here’s a brief tutorial to get you started.
It’s really simple and you’ll feel really proud after you’ve done this.
Thanks for watching and have a lovely rest of your weekend!
DC

SpaceX Making Money Move

SpaceX is securing a $500 million line of credit through Fidelity to fund its plan to create an inexpensive internet service. Existing shareholders are also creating several special purpose financial vehicles to sell shares on the secondary market. These offerings could raise an additional $500 million. These share are reportedly selling for between $160 and $170.

Talks with the US Air Force will possibly generate $290 million in contracts for SpaceX. This money will likely be used to get 3 global positioning system satellites into orbit by the end of 2020. There is ongoing talks with private investors and commercial space companies. Some of the companies are Blue Origin, Virgin Orbit, Rocket Lab, Relativity Space and SpinLaunch. The talks will likely reduce the cost of launching payloads into space. Talks with satellite companies will reduce the costs for building the equipment for monitoring and communication technologies.

The race to build a space based infrastructure in not only heating up in the US. A Japanese company, ispace announced a $90 million first round of funding for the development of a lunar lander and two lunar missions by 2020.

Source: techcrunch.com

Source: giphy.com

Must Try !!, This 7 Tricks to Raise Follower in Instagram

Instagram is now one of the king of social media. According to research, millenial generation has moved from Facebook, to applications such as Snapchat and Instagram.

Many who want to exist in Instagram not because looking for fans, but want to be influencers to promote something.

Because many who want to exist in Instagram, finally started a lot of services to buy follower or bot services to spread the popularity of an account.

But using fake follower will not be effective, because more important is engagement, not just the number of followers. The use of bots can potentially punish someone from Instagram.

So how to improve the right follower in Instagram? Here is the summary as quoted from the Prague Post, Tuesday (20/2/2018).

1.Find a Specific Target

Do not be eager to find followers as much as possible. Especially do not seek the sensation in a negative way to get the attention of citizens.

Try slowly looking for a more specific target, looking for a group of people who have interest or interest in you. Examples of soccer, tennis, jazz, K-Pop, French films, and so on.

Begin to search for a network in a specific audience first, after being steady then towards a larger community.

2.Show Strong Impression

A good impression starts from the profile picture. Then, after what profile picture? Is sending a large selfie?

Do not be mostly selfie. Try writing down other things that reflect your personality or content. For example, write something interesting and creative in the bio, or maybe also in the caption column to describe your content with interesting.

The goal is that the follower can get to know the content you have. Consistency is also important. Do not suddenly change the theme of the content because it can make the follower away.

3.use Hashtags Cleverly

Do not just use stale hashtag like #likeforlike, try to be more creative in using hashtags.
Think about what the prospective followers find in your Instagram content.

For example, if your content is about a novel, write a hashtag in the name of the novelist, the title of the book, the publisher, or the character’s name. When your content is about music, write down the hash tag of the instrument you are playing or your favorite genre.

Do not forget to pay attention to the hashtag being discussed in the social or political field. Using hashtags correctly can keep you relevant and prevent stagnant situations.

4.Promote someone’s Content

There are so many talented people on Instagram, and they are also looking for an audience. Try sharing other people’s created content to promote each other.

This can be done through a kind of contest by asking other users to post a photo with certain tags for you to promote.

If you want to share the cool content of other Instagram users, do not forget to ask permission first.

5.Building Communication with Followers

Do not just want to be commented on and given like, you try to give the same thing to the people who become follower.

Try giving supportive words to their content, and do not just reply with stale words. No need also stingy to reply to comments, especially if the follower is still a little.

6.Cooperating with Influencers with Fewer Followers

Often there are people who can not wait to be famous and do social climbing by seeking the attention of influencer accounts that are well known.

Then try to communicate with influencers whose follower is still a little to grow together.

It’s better than spending the money and time to get in touch with the well-known influencers.

7.Give Shout-Out

Help spread the other influencers by doing a shout-out aka promotion of other accounts.

Do it in turn so that you can also be shout-out so that they can expose each other to their own follower

The result? Your content reach will be wider.

 

https://steemit.com/@nabilah48

Indestructible GoPro

Erik Storm is a tour group guide at Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. While he was conducting a tour, he placed his GoPro down and the camera was swallowed up by a lava flow.

His first thought was the camera was toast but GoPro claims that their cameras are indestructible. So now to put their claim to the test. The camera was chiseled out of the cooled lava flow.

Once he got home, he chiseled off the remaining lava rock off the camera and he discovered that the wifi light was still flashing. He was able to download the video captured when the lava flow swallowed the camera.

He proved GoPro’s claim. The temperature of flowing lava is about 1,800 degrees Fahrenheit.

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