Turkish Contagion Spreading


Turkey has major economic problems and it appears that their currency is on the verge of collapse. To keep the Turkish economy afloat, many European banks have extended credit to prevent the debacle. Spain’s second largest bank lent $18 billion and France’s BNP lent $40 billion. They question is, will this be enough.

Since 2013, gold is up four times in relation to the Turkish lira. In addition, Turkish banks have amassed a sizable amount of debt (it’s debt is about 40% of their balance sheet) which incurs payments for interest. Economically, payment whether based in lira or dollars, will be a burden on the Turkish economy. If it is based in dollars, the dollar is strong against the lira which means it will take more lira to pay. If it is based in Turkish lira, the lira is devalued so it will still take more lira to pay the debt service. Either way it will be more costly to service the debt. The end result is collapse.

The economic problem probably started in Greece but more recently, Venezuela or Argentina and likely Brazil. This is a domino effect, it one country’s currency collapses it has a germane effect on all currencies since they are all intrinsically linked.

We as a global economy are in a fix, when all major economies are in precarious positions. The US economy along with the Chinese, Japanese, Russian and UK economies are teetering on collapse. People don’t see it unless they do some research, they one’s whom are still gainfully employed are too busy trying to make ends meet and the others are too busy looking for their next meal, but the world is in a mess. Back when some countries were economically on solid ground, it made sense that the less well off countries could gain a foot hold by diverting some of the wealth but today, no country is economically sound so where do they go to procure wealth. For the US, they print more fiat money. Eventually the sky will fall, this is happening in countries one by one.

To make an analogy, it’s like the person who kites their finances. They pay off one credit card with another until the credit line is reached, then the house of cards falls. The problem is more severe with countries because of the magnitude of the debt, with a single or so household, the debt can be written off and absorbed. With a country, it creates a domino effect which will eventually pull down the global economy.

At some point, we will not be able to ‘kick the can’ down the road so that the financial debacle becomes the problem of a future generation. The credit crunch will blow up in our faces and that is apparently about to happen. Countries have no surpluses to sustain them and the only apparent solution is a jubilee.

This is not my opinion, it is noted in the Bible that every 49 years all debts should be dissolved and the clock should reset. This is not to be a religious solution but a practical solution. Consider the credit market freezing, how do commodities get from producers to the end users.

This is not meant to be a lecture, for you who see the picture on the wall. It is more meant for those who don’t see the picture (outcome). It is time to wake up to reality and 1) invest what ever you have in the bank to a more stable commodity; 2) learn a trade that you can barter. This is not doom and gloom but the picture is gloomy.

Author: outwalking
Life time student

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